The dropout rate for learner pilots is around 80%
"According to research done by aviation advocacy groups such as the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, the National Association of Flight Instructors, and the Society of Aviation and Flight Educators, the dropout rate for learner pilots is around 80 percent." https://www.flyingmag.com/dont-quit-after-your-first-solo/
Why should Boulder residents bear the cost of hosting an activity with this kind of success rate? Why are these businesses being propped up with citizen provided infrastructure, while the only thing they reliably produce is pollution?
The AOPA performed a flight training experience survey in 2010, and another more recent survey that closed in October 2022.
That survey asks for the reasons a student took up flight training, and also whether the student continued as a professional pilot. For some reason, one year later, they have yet to publicize the results of that most recent survey. (Maybe they didn't like the data.) The most recent publiczed results are from 2010.
AOPA, The Flight training experience, A survey of students, pilots, and instructors
How can we fix our 80% aviation drop out rate?
11 Reasons Why 80% of Student Pilots Drop Out of Training
Top 2 reasons why student pilots drop out of flying school
"According to research done by aviation advocacy groups such as the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, the National Association of Flight Instructors, and the Society of Aviation and Flight Educators, the dropout rate for learner pilots is around 80 percent." https://www.flyingmag.com/dont-quit-after-your-first-solo/
Why should Boulder residents bear the cost of hosting an activity with this kind of success rate? Why are these businesses being propped up with citizen provided infrastructure, while the only thing they reliably produce is pollution?
The AOPA performed a flight training experience survey in 2010, and another more recent survey that closed in October 2022.
That survey asks for the reasons a student took up flight training, and also whether the student continued as a professional pilot. For some reason, one year later, they have yet to publicize the results of that most recent survey. (Maybe they didn't like the data.) The most recent publiczed results are from 2010.
AOPA, The Flight training experience, A survey of students, pilots, and instructors
How can we fix our 80% aviation drop out rate?
11 Reasons Why 80% of Student Pilots Drop Out of Training
Top 2 reasons why student pilots drop out of flying school
U.S. Pilot Production Continues to Shatter Records Despite Special-Interest Rhetoric
America Producing More Pilots Than Ever
While 80% of flight school students do not go on as a professional pilot, it is also true that there is no pilot shortage. Yes, they can both be true. Like, we have so many people flying around in these piston engine planes that 80% will drop out and there are still plenty of students who are able to go on but can't get a job that can support one or more people.
"As special interests in Washington continue their campaign of misinformation about pilot supply, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has released its latest pilot-production data showing that the United States is outperforming last year’s record-breaking year with 10,091 new airline pilots certificated in the past 12 months. More than 1,200 new pilots were produced in August alone of this year, the largest monthly number ever."
This headline and excerpt are from the Air Line Pilots Association's September 2023 report. The ALPA calls itself "the largest airline pilot union in the world."
The pilot shortage has been raised as a dire concern for decades and we hear it often today. This myth serves the aviation industry very well. It certainly does not serve residents whose communities have been turned into flight training areas, such as Boulder County. See Boulder County training areas. Moreover, it may not actually serve the people looking to find a job as a pilot.
Here's what ALPA said in 2022:
"Over the past decade, the United States has produced more than enough certificated pilots to meet airline hiring demands and compensate for retirements, even as new and more rigorous pilot training standards were enacted to enhance safety. In fact, there are currently about 1.5 certificated pilots relative to demand, according to Federal Aviation Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics data."
Pilot unions also rebutt the pilot shortage assertion, as in this CNN article:
"The most popular air travel day this year was a mess..." CNN, Jun '22
"Unions representing pilots at Delta, American and Southwest say that airlines got themselves into the current situation by refusing to replace pilots who retired and took leaves of absence during the height of the pandemic when air travel plummeted.About 8,000 new commercial pilots have received certificates in the last year, according to pilot unions, and they say there shouldn’t be a shortage. The current service cut narrative, they claim, is being used by companies to justify a cut to training and safety requirements that will boost profit margins."
Pilots themselves cite the poor quality of entry level positions as reasons for any national shortage, including poor pay and difficult job conditions. But, this does not keep the flight training industry from arguing that a shortage exists.
The problem could actually be that there is a glut of airports in the US to feed the ever hungry industry, thus they must constantly recruit students. This in turn forces those students to compete for poor jobs, many of which are in, unsurprisingly, pilot training. Flight schools pursue growth by increasing their fleet size and heavily marketing their training (with the aid of the FAA, AOPA, etc.), creating an induced demand.
Boeing's 2022 Pilot and Technician Outlook provides staffing forecasts for the next 20 years for the industry, broken down by continent. Boeing projects 602,000 pilots needed worldwide. Of these, 128,000 would be in North America for the next 20 years. That's 21% of the worldwide need, for the US, Mexico, and Canada. That would 6,400 pilots per year.
"As special interests in Washington continue their campaign of misinformation about pilot supply, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has released its latest pilot-production data showing that the United States is outperforming last year’s record-breaking year with 10,091 new airline pilots certificated in the past 12 months. More than 1,200 new pilots were produced in August alone of this year, the largest monthly number ever."
This headline and excerpt are from the Air Line Pilots Association's September 2023 report. The ALPA calls itself "the largest airline pilot union in the world."
The pilot shortage has been raised as a dire concern for decades and we hear it often today. This myth serves the aviation industry very well. It certainly does not serve residents whose communities have been turned into flight training areas, such as Boulder County. See Boulder County training areas. Moreover, it may not actually serve the people looking to find a job as a pilot.
Here's what ALPA said in 2022:
"Over the past decade, the United States has produced more than enough certificated pilots to meet airline hiring demands and compensate for retirements, even as new and more rigorous pilot training standards were enacted to enhance safety. In fact, there are currently about 1.5 certificated pilots relative to demand, according to Federal Aviation Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics data."
Pilot unions also rebutt the pilot shortage assertion, as in this CNN article:
"The most popular air travel day this year was a mess..." CNN, Jun '22
"Unions representing pilots at Delta, American and Southwest say that airlines got themselves into the current situation by refusing to replace pilots who retired and took leaves of absence during the height of the pandemic when air travel plummeted.About 8,000 new commercial pilots have received certificates in the last year, according to pilot unions, and they say there shouldn’t be a shortage. The current service cut narrative, they claim, is being used by companies to justify a cut to training and safety requirements that will boost profit margins."
Pilots themselves cite the poor quality of entry level positions as reasons for any national shortage, including poor pay and difficult job conditions. But, this does not keep the flight training industry from arguing that a shortage exists.
The problem could actually be that there is a glut of airports in the US to feed the ever hungry industry, thus they must constantly recruit students. This in turn forces those students to compete for poor jobs, many of which are in, unsurprisingly, pilot training. Flight schools pursue growth by increasing their fleet size and heavily marketing their training (with the aid of the FAA, AOPA, etc.), creating an induced demand.
Boeing's 2022 Pilot and Technician Outlook provides staffing forecasts for the next 20 years for the industry, broken down by continent. Boeing projects 602,000 pilots needed worldwide. Of these, 128,000 would be in North America for the next 20 years. That's 21% of the worldwide need, for the US, Mexico, and Canada. That would 6,400 pilots per year.
The FAA 2021 Airmen Statistics shows 250,000 student pilots listed in 2021, nearly 40 times the 6,400 forecast. The number of student pilot certificates has doubled in the past 10 years.
Professional or recreational goals?
In 2011 AOPA found that "65% of aspiring pilot trainees want to fly for leisure, 5% for business, and 29% to train as a professional pilot." (2022 survey results will be out next year.)
In 2011 AOPA found that "65% of aspiring pilot trainees want to fly for leisure, 5% for business, and 29% to train as a professional pilot." (2022 survey results will be out next year.)
International marketing and clientele
Clearly the other 474,000 pilots needed for the rest of the world need to be trained. Where will they get their training? Why, in the US, of course. US general aviation industry to the rescue!
Flight schools in and around Boulder County market world wide, touting the beauty of flying over Boulder. China, Korea, Vietnam, and Syria send students to the US to train, among others. This is probably cheaper than hosting their own flight training infrastructure, because here in the US the industry is heaviy subsized (by citizen taxes and fees) and the costs are externalized onto residents and citizens. For example, China has 12 established flights schools. The Boulder County region alone may have five times that number of flight schools.
Of course, the AOPA is there to help foreign students come here to train, www.aopa.org/advocacy/pilots/alien-flight-training-program/aliens-and-non-us-citizens-seeking-flight-training.
Flight schools in and around Boulder County market world wide, touting the beauty of flying over Boulder. China, Korea, Vietnam, and Syria send students to the US to train, among others. This is probably cheaper than hosting their own flight training infrastructure, because here in the US the industry is heaviy subsized (by citizen taxes and fees) and the costs are externalized onto residents and citizens. For example, China has 12 established flights schools. The Boulder County region alone may have five times that number of flight schools.
Of course, the AOPA is there to help foreign students come here to train, www.aopa.org/advocacy/pilots/alien-flight-training-program/aliens-and-non-us-citizens-seeking-flight-training.
Pilot demographics
Pilots are a highly male dominated group. In 2021, 91% of pilot certificates were held by men.
“Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) statistics reveal that in 2019 there were 624,065 certified pilots nationwide. This figure, which includes flight instructors and student pilots (many recruited from overseas), represents less than one-quarter of one percent of the entire population [CA 2019 STATS]. The 20,000 general aviation airports in this country exist primarily to serve this privileged few.” Special Privilege for the Few
“Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) statistics reveal that in 2019 there were 624,065 certified pilots nationwide. This figure, which includes flight instructors and student pilots (many recruited from overseas), represents less than one-quarter of one percent of the entire population [CA 2019 STATS]. The 20,000 general aviation airports in this country exist primarily to serve this privileged few.” Special Privilege for the Few
Growth of regional airports in the US
“The U.S. has more than 21,000 airports, including 500 commercial passenger facilities and 20,000 general aviation airports. Europe, by contrast, with a population more than twice that of the U.S., has 2,323, one-tenth as many as the U.S.“ [Estimates ] [GAMA 2019] Special Privilege for the Few.
"According to Reuters, many people in China are looking at the Aviation Industry as a source of employment, but the 12 established flight schools are overwhelmed by the number of people who want to attend." ""... Around 2,000 Chinese flight student candidates are sent to the United States every year for training. Flight schools in Oregon, Arizona and Illinois are reporting over 50 percent of their students are now from Chinese airlines."
The problem could actually be that there is a glut of airports in the US to feed the ever hungry general aviation industry, thus they must constantly recruit students. This in turn forces those students to compete for poor jobs, many of which are pilot training.
"According to Reuters, many people in China are looking at the Aviation Industry as a source of employment, but the 12 established flight schools are overwhelmed by the number of people who want to attend." ""... Around 2,000 Chinese flight student candidates are sent to the United States every year for training. Flight schools in Oregon, Arizona and Illinois are reporting over 50 percent of their students are now from Chinese airlines."
The problem could actually be that there is a glut of airports in the US to feed the ever hungry general aviation industry, thus they must constantly recruit students. This in turn forces those students to compete for poor jobs, many of which are pilot training.
Reframing the obligation to host pilot training
The 'need' to learn to fly is often used to justify all this traffic in our sky. The implication is that it is the duty and obligation of Boulder, Boulder County, and, indeed, the entire US to host this training on behalf of the world. This is false. This industrial, polluting activity could and should occur in more appropriate areas. The pollution must be equitably managed.
Resources
ALPA, Sep 2023, U.S. Pilot Production Continues to Shatter RecordsDespite Special-Interest Rhetoric, America Producing More Pilots Than Ever
ALPA, ~Jan 2022, "More than Enough Pilots to meet US Airline Demand, Debunking the Pilot Shortage Myth"
China's Aviation Growth Fuels US Flight Schools
Boeing Pilot and Technician Outlook 2022 - 2014, www.boeing.com/commercial/market/pilot-technician-outlook/
US Civil Airmen Statistics: https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics
download.aopa.org/epilot/2011/AOPA_Research-The_Flight_Training_Experience.pdf
Airline Pilots Association, Int'l, "More Than Enough Pilots to Meet U.S. Airline Demand, Debunking the Pilot Shortage Myth", www.alpa.org/advocacy/pilot-supply
"Special Privilege for the Few," Oregon Aviation Watch, https://www.oregonaviationwatch.org/articles/OAW-OregonAviationPoliciesSpecialPrivilege.php
U.S. Civil Airmen 2019 Statistics. FAA website.
ALPA, ~Jan 2022, "More than Enough Pilots to meet US Airline Demand, Debunking the Pilot Shortage Myth"
China's Aviation Growth Fuels US Flight Schools
Boeing Pilot and Technician Outlook 2022 - 2014, www.boeing.com/commercial/market/pilot-technician-outlook/
US Civil Airmen Statistics: https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics
download.aopa.org/epilot/2011/AOPA_Research-The_Flight_Training_Experience.pdf
Airline Pilots Association, Int'l, "More Than Enough Pilots to Meet U.S. Airline Demand, Debunking the Pilot Shortage Myth", www.alpa.org/advocacy/pilot-supply
"Special Privilege for the Few," Oregon Aviation Watch, https://www.oregonaviationwatch.org/articles/OAW-OregonAviationPoliciesSpecialPrivilege.php
U.S. Civil Airmen 2019 Statistics. FAA website.